Syamsul Bahri


The purpose of this research are:
1. To see the growing of demand and rice consume in East Java since 7 year latest (1995-2001)
2. To know factors which influence rice demand in East Java
3. To know aptudate rice demand elasticity and rice demand projection in East Java
This research using secondary data from statistic central of committee, Dolog, Agriculture Departement Dati I of East Java and instances which in connection with rice demand in East Java in 1995-2001. Growing demand trend and rice consume analysied with simple regression. Factor which influence using double linier regression. To know elasticity can see from regression variable koefition value which included in analysis model.
The result of this research are rice demand trend in East Java was increase 15.037 tons/year and consume trend 3.3293 kg/kapita/year. Double linier regression analysed showing that price factor which real connected was the rice price and flour price with each elasticity value -0.498 and -0.321 each standard significant is 2.1% and 3.9%. It?s mean rice demand with rice price were connected complementer, if the rice price increase 1%, therefore rice demand will be increasing 0.498% and if the rice price decrease 1% therefore the rice demand will be decreasing 0.498%.
Rice demand with flour price connected complementer. It?s mean if the price flour increase 1% therefore the rice demand will be decreasing 0.321% and if the price flour decrease 1% therefore rice demand will be increasing 0.321%. The demand projection and rice consume for 10 years coming was slowing increase 9.08% and 9.10% in 2005-2014.


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